Don't Let the Facts Get In the Way of a Pessimistic Story
Americans are far better off than at any other time in our country's history
In an era when pessimism clouds our perception of reality, it's essential to step back and assess the true state of affairs in America. The United States, often at the center of global discourse for its challenges and controversies, actually presents a remarkably different picture upon closer examination. This article aims to dispel common myths about our economy, innovation, global influence, military strength, healthcare, equality, education, crime, energy independence, energy, and climate change initiatives.
By juxtaposing widely held misconceptions with factual data, I aim to provide a refreshing perspective on how America, contrary to popular belief, is not just surviving, but thriving. While we must always be introspective and we have many problems to solve, our current pessimism is overdone. We risk a vicious self-reinforcing cycle, whereby our malaise ensures the horrible outcomes we are worried so much about.
Instead, we should embrace a new shared national narrative rooted in what makes us good. This can be a foundation to tackle our major challenges, from rising autocracy, extremism and hate, to climate change and inequality.
Economy
Myth: America is “broke” with unsustainable debt levels
Reality: America is the richest country in the world. The net worth of the United States is more than the combined net worth of the next four countries, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom (source) Consider a homeowner with a $200,000 loan for a $400,000 property and $200,000 in savings. The critical figure isn't the debt but the $400,000 in net assets. Similarly, the U.S.'s net financial position (+$123.8 trillion) is a more telling indicator than our debt levels.
Myth: Exploding debt in the United States is unsustainable and will lead to a debt crisis.
Reality: There is precedent for debt to GDP levels to increase to around 120%, during times of crisis, going back to WW2. During such times, the government increases spending to stimulate the economy, support businesses and individuals, and prevent a deeper recession or depression. This approach, known as countercyclical fiscal policy, can be crucial for economic recovery. In response to 9-11, the Great Financial Crisis, COVID-19 and other crises, the U.S. has responded decisively, ensuring that the U.S. maintains economic growth, societal stability, and global leadership.
Myth: America’s economy lurches from one crisis to another, indicating inherent weakness.
Reality: Over the longer-term, our economy is robust, with a consistently rising real GDP per capita.
Reality: Our capital markets are the deepest and most liquid in the world.
About 60% of global stock market capitalization is in America.
Myth: America's productivity is stagnating.
Reality: We live in an age of 'Superabundance'. Essentials are more accessible than ever. From 1980 to 2018, the time required to afford a middle-class lifestyle's commodities decreased by 72%, freeing resources for other uses. From an article by David Brooks:
From 1980 to 2018, the average amount of time a person had to work to afford the basket of commodities—energy, food, raw materials—that make up a typical middle-class lifestyle fell by 72 percent, according to the book Superabundance, by Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley. That, too, frees up a lot of time and resources that can be spent on other things.
Myth: America has lost its status as the epicenter of global innovation.
Reality: Ranking third globally in the 2023 Global Innovation Index, the U.S. excels in crucial areas like corporate R&D, venture capital, university quality, unicorn company valuations, and corporate acquisitions. We score the best in the world in 13 of the 80 GII 2023 innovation indicators. This includes critical indicators such as global corporate R&D investors, venture capital received, university quality, combined valuation of unicorn companies, and the value of corporate acquisitions, which are key areas in technology, biotech, and finance.
Also from the Brooks article:
[America] leads the world in the amount of foreign direct investment it attracts. It hosts the world’s most important capital markets, and they are growing. In 2011, for example, $45.4 billion of venture capital was invested in young, innovative American firms. In 2021, $332.8 billion was invested in such firms.
Myth: The U.S. is relinquishing its role as a technological pioneer.
Reality: America leads in AI, quantum computing, and space exploration. For instance, per a report from venture capital firm Air Street Capital, American institutions author over 70% of the most-cited AI papers since 2020, and U.S. AI firms garnered 70% of the global private funding in 2023.
Per Quantum Insider:
The difference between the quantum investment market of the US to China is the different economic models underpinning the two nations. China has significantly higher public spending beyond simply R&D compared to the US. Whereas private investments in quantum technologies, research, and startups are substantially higher in the US than in China. Here are the differences in four points: China’s public spending on quantum is four times higher than the US. US private investment in quantum is over 1350% higher than in China. There are over 10x the number of quantum startups and 6x quantum investors in the US to China. Interestingly, China holds over 30% quantum patents than the US. However, the patents resided in the US are accredited in globally respected journals for their scientific impact and innovation.
The U.S. space budget is over $50 billion, more than 3x that of China, according to Phys.org. They also reported that:
U.S. also leads significantly in the number of active satellites. Currently, there are 5,465 total operational satellites in orbit around Earth. The U.S. operates 3,433, or 63% of those. In contrast, China has 541.
Global Influence
Myth: America's global influence is waning in the face of rising powers.
Reality: We provide more foreign aid, both humanitarian and development, than the rest of the world combined.
Reality: The U.S. remains a dominant cultural force, with American pop culture icons and Hollywood shaping global trends. American social media platforms set communication standards worldwide.
American pop culture has significantly shaped and continues to shape global society. Icons such as Taylor Swift, Beyonce, LeBron James, and others have transcended national borders, becoming global symbols of American culture. Their influence extends beyond the United States, impacting global cultural trends and consumer behaviors.
Hollywood, often hailed as the entertainment capital of the world, has exerted a profound influence on both pop culture and society for over a century. This impact reflects in the global reach of American movies and television shows, shaping narratives and cultural perceptions across the world.
In music, genres like hip-hop, which were once seen as temporary trends, have evolved to have a significant global impact. Celebrating its 50th anniversary, hip-hop showcases its far-reaching influence, evident in various cultural aspects globally.
Platforms like Facebook, a leading example of American social media innovation, have set the standard for 21st-century communication. The influence of American social media platforms extends globally, affecting how people communicate and interact across various cultures and societies.
Military Strength
Myth: Other nations are closing the military gap with the U.S., threatening our security
Reality: The United States spends more on national defense than China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, and Ukraine — combined.
Reality: The United States military is the most lethal and effective military in modern history.
Reality: The U.S. benefits immensely from its natural oceanic borders—the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
The vast Atlantic Ocean borders the eastern coastline, including the Atlantic Coastal Plain, which extends from the northeastern states down to Florida. On the western edge, the Pacific Ocean borders the U.S., with the Pacific Coast Range including coastal mountains from Alaska to California, featuring several active volcanoes and renowned coastal areas. These vast water bodies not only facilitate extensive trade and commerce but also provide a strategic defense advantage, historically safeguarding the nation from direct threats.
Issues at the Borders
Myth: The United States' borders and relationships with Canada and Mexico are largely disadvantageous and contribute little to the nation's economic stability and security.
Reality: America's neighbors, Canada to the north and Mexico to the south, are more than just friendly; they are vital trade partners and allies. The peaceful relations and cooperative agreements with these nations contribute significantly to the U.S.'s economic stability and security. Undoubtedly, there are immigration issues that must be addressed with both practicality and compassion.
U.S. Trade with Mexico: During the first four months of 2023, Mexico-U.S. trade represented 15.4 percent of all goods exported and imported by the U.S. (source: Dallas Fed) In total for 2023, the U.S. exported goods worth approximately $243.54 billion to Mexico and imported goods totaling about $356.25 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $112.71 billion. (source: census.gov)
U.S. Trade with Canada: In August 2023 alone, the total value of U.S. trade in goods with Canada amounted to approximately $67.24 billion, comprising $31 billion in exports and $36.24 billion in imports (source: Statista). Over the course of 2023, the total U.S. trade with Canada was valued at $267.18 billion in exports and $314.96 billion in imports, leading to a trade deficit of $47.77 billion. (source: census.gov)
Healthcare
Myth: U.S. healthcare lags behind other developed nations.
Reality: Americans are living longer, fewer infants are dying, and America spends more on healthcare per capita than anyone else
The average life expectancy in the US is 79, up from 73.7 in 1980 (macrotrends). Infant mortality was 9.4 deaths per 1,000 births in 1990 and has fallen almost every year to 5.4 in 2021. (source). In 2010, 15.5% Americans didn’t have health insurance. Today that number is 8.6%
Equality
Myth: Rising inequality is eroding American society.
Reality: Poverty rates have decreased, and income distribution, when considering government transfers and tax policies, has remained stable.
In 1990, 13.5% of the U.S. population lived in poverty. It went as high at 15% in 2010 and today that number is 11.5%.
When you factor in transfer payments from governments and tax policy, the share of income for the bottom 50% of the population has remained unchanged since 1990. Many prior research studies ignored these sources of effective income. The government has worked hard for the people who have been left behind (source)
Myth: America is a racially intolerant and unwelcoming society.
Reality: America is more diverse today than ever before. The Census Bureau built a metric, Diversity Index (DI) to measure the probability that two people chosen at random will be from different racial and ethnic groups.
The DI is bounded between 0 and 1. A value of 0 indicates that everyone in the population has the same racial and ethnic characteristics. A value close to 1 indicates that almost everyone in the population has different racial and ethnic characteristics. Using the same Diversity Index calculation for 2020 and 2010 redistricting data, the chance that two people chosen at random will be from different racial or ethnic groups has increased to 61.1% in 2020 from 54.9% in 2010.
Education
Myth: The American education system is failing.
Reality: A lot more people are going to college, getting masters degrees, and getting doctorates. And all agree that going to college produces higher incomes.
Also, according to U.S. News and World Report, 8 out of the top 10 and 15 out of the top 20 universities in the world are in, you guessed it, America.
Reality: While test scores have fallen, many other education metrics have improved.
Per the National Center for Education Statistics,
The overall status dropout rate for 16- to 24-year-olds decreased from 8.3 percent in 2010 to 5.2 percent in 2021. During this time, the status dropout rate declined for those who were Hispanic (from 16.7 to 7.8 percent), American Indian/Alaska Native (from 15.4 to 10.2 percent), Black (from 10.3 to 5.9 percent), of Two or more races (from 6.1 to 4.9 percent), White (from 5.3 to 4.1 percent), and Asian (from 2.8 to 2.1 percent). (source)
And commensurately, graduation rates have gone up:
In school year 2019–20, the U.S. average adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR) for public high school students was 87 percent, the highest it has been since the rate was first measured in 2010–11 (79 percent). Asian/Pacific Islander students had the highest ACGR (93 percent), followed by White (90 percent), Hispanic (83 percent), Black (81 percent), and American Indian/Alaska Native (75 percent) students. (source)
Myth: Crime is spiraling out of control in the U.S.
Reality: Rates of violent crimes and property crimes have significantly declined since 1990.
In 1990, 0.4% of the US population was incarcerated. In 2021, it was 0.5%, essentially the same percentage. Almost every article about incarceration in the U.S. mentions the total people, but not the rate.
Energy Independence
Myth: The U.S. is reliant on autocracies for oil
Reality: The United States has been an annual net total energy exporter (total energy exports have been higher than total energy imports) since 2019
The concept of energy independence in the United States has been a matter of ongoing debate and assessment. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA):
Furthermore, in 2021, the United States produced a total of 97.95 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) of energy. A major portion of this energy came from natural gas (36%) and petroleum (31%), with the total energy production exceeding the nation's consumption, which stood at 97.33 quadrillion Btus. This indicates a significant shift towards greater self-reliance in energy production, though it doesn't fully eliminate the need for imports, especially given the complexity of global energy markets and the specific types of crude oil required for U.S. refineries.
Climate Change
Myth: The U.S. is indifferent to climate change.
Reality: Renewable energy production and consumption both reached record highs in 2022, accounting for about 13% of the total energy production.
Reality: Greenhouse gas emissions have decreased significantly, reflecting a commitment to environmental stewardship. In 2020, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions totaled 5,981 million metric tons (13.2 trillion pounds) of carbon dioxide equivalents. This total represents a 7 percent decrease since 1990 and a 20 percent decrease since 2005 (source).
Air pollutant emissions have fallen dramatically (source)
Myth: We are not good stewards of our natural resources
Reality: The United States is a global leader in both freshwater resources and arable land.
As of 2015, total U.S. water use was approximately 322 billion gallons per day, with 87% being freshwater, mainly utilized for thermoelectric power and irrigation. About 87% of the U.S. population relied on public water supply in 2015, with surface sources accounting for 74% of all water withdrawals. The country has made significant strides in water conservation and management. The Safe Drinking Water Act, enacted in 1974 and amended in 1986, 1996, and 2018, regulates contaminants in public water supplies and promotes the capacity of water systems to comply with regulations. (source)
In terms of arable land, the U.S. possesses the most in the world, with 157.7 million hectares (389.8 million acres), which is a significant portion of its land area. (source)
This vast expanse of arable land plays a crucial role in the nation's agricultural output and food security. To protect these resources, effective watershed management plans have been implemented, which are often more cost-effective and environmentally sound than treating contaminated water. For example, New York City chose to invest between $1-1.5 billion in a watershed protection project in the Catskill/Delaware watershed, instead of constructing a new filtration plant at a much higher cost. These efforts underscore the importance of sustainable management and conservation of natural resources to maintain the nation's agricultural productivity and water security. (source)
Conclusion
As we conclude this journey through the state of America, it becomes clear that the narrative of decline and despair is far from accurate. The United States, through its robust economy, pioneering innovations, influential global presence, unparalleled military might, improving healthcare, strides towards equality, educational excellence, declining crime rates, and proactive climate change measures, stands as a testament to resilience and progress. This exploration serves not just to correct misconceptions but also to inspire a sense of hope and confidence in the future. Even in challenging times, America continues to forge a path of prosperity and advancement and continues to serve as a beacon of freedom, opportunity, and progress to the world.
Thank you for reading. If you like what you just read, please subscribe for more content. Consume at Once is about how to simplify a complex world being disrupted by technology. Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the personal and subjective judgments and assumptions of the author only.
My concern is the science, and by the way, the global situation is way beyond what happens in just the US: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/